This could be the Most Chaotic Year Yet for the BCS
Posted on November 15, 2011 by Jacob Bunn
Let me begin by saying if LSU and Oklahoma State win the remainder of their games, the BCS Championship Game will be between those two. But that is a scenario that needs no conversation. If one or both of those teams loses, however, the situation becomes much more compelling.
Right now, there are four one-loss teams that have a legitimate shot at the title behind the two top teams in the BCS Standings. That could change, of course, with circumstances that would exceed bizarre. But for now, I am going to leave Clemson, Virginia Tech and Stanford out of the discussion.
As we know, the two games that currently look to have the most impact on the BCS Championship are the November 25th showdown between Arkansas and LSU in Baton Rouge and the December 3rd game between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in Stillwater. The positive news for the teams in the two drivers’ seats is the fact that they will both play their big games at home.
Many believe that Oklahoma State will have to lose to make the situation interesting because LSU is invincible. That could be true, but personally I think there is more of chance of the Tigers getting knocked off than there is of Oklahoma State going down. And if LSU does lose to Arkansas, and the other two tied teams win the remainder of their games, then there is an added element to the puzzle. In the event of a three-way tie in a division of the SEC such as the three tied teams only lost to each other, the resolution will be determined by the BCS Standings.
By SEC rule, in the event of such a tie, the conference takes the top two tied teams in the BCS Standings (if they are within five spots of one another) and allows the head to head competition between those two teams determine which team plays for the SEC Championship in Atlanta. Since Arkansas is sixth, Alabama is third, and LSU is first in the current BCS Standings, the three teams will all be within five spots of one another at the end of the year in the scenario that was explained above. Therefore, the chance to play in Atlanta would, in such a situation, comes down to which team is the lowest in the BCS Standings.
If Arkansas is ranked lowest, LSU would go to the SEC Championship Game. If Alabama is ranked lowest, Arkansas would go to Atlanta. And of LSU is lowest, Alabama would go. Remember, though, this only happens if all three teams win the rest of their games and Arkansas defeats LSU.
There is also the Georgia factor in this complicated situation. What would happen if Georgia, which is likely to beat Kentucky this weekend and secure a spot in the SEC Championship Game, beats the winner of the SEC West in Atlanta? If a previously undefeated LSU loses to Georgia, do you put Alabama over the Tigers, even though the Tide did not even win its own division?
And then of course, there is the scenario that contains Oklahoma knocking off Oklahoma State. Currently, Alabama is the team right behind the Cowboys in the standings, but would the Tide stay that way at the end of the year with Oklahoma and Oregon close behind? And don’t forget about the Ducks. The only loss they have incurred is at the hands of top-ranked LSU, just like Alabama.
Oklahoma actually has a tougher hill to climb, in my opinion, to get back into the championship conversation. This is mostly because of which team the Sooners lost to, a poor Texas Tech squad in Norman. That is not really comparable to Oregon and Alabama losing to the number one team in the BCS.
Regardless of how it happens, if one of the top two teams is beaten, the entire BCS landscape will be jarred. I know there have been rough years in the BCS, but for the most part the organization has delivered a game between the two best-considered teams in the nation. With the way things seem to shaping up this year, though, it may not be able to achieve that goal.
Next week, I may examine some Congressional legislation to see if that’s simpler than the BCS.
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Email Jacob at jacob@bunnsports.com and follow him on Twitter at @JacobBunn
